Chris Tann (ctann) wrote,
Chris Tann

The future, now.

OK, so how far off could I be in my Supercomputer predictions? 10 PetaFlops is here, today, in little-old 2011 - 9 years ahead of (my) schedule. And the interesting thing from this article - they are now predicting *exaflop* (that is 1000 petaflops) by 2020. In other words, my predictions need to be adjusted by 100x.

My other prediction was that consumer-grade technology follows the peak of research technology by about 20 years. So I was predicting 10 peta-flop consumer grade technology by 2040. So, bring that in to 2031, and that means we may well have "AI-class" computing power in a small enough package to be portable by then. "Uploading" is starting to look more and more of a reality...


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